Good morning. The labor gap isn't an industry statistic — it's the reason your best tech got a recruiter's call last week. Here's the 2026 picture, and why the smart money is spending on keeping people, not just finding them.
Top story — The number dropped, but the squeeze didn't
U.S. construction needs an estimated 349,000 net new workers in 2026 — on top of normal hiring, just to keep labor supply and demand in balance — down from 439,000 last year, according to Associated Builders and Contractors' annual workforce model (ABC, 15 Jan 2026). Don't read the smaller number as relief: the drop traces to modest 2026 construction-spending forecasts, not an easing labor market, and the majority of that 2026 demand is replacing retirees, not new growth. ABC projects the need jumps back to 456,000 in 2027 as spending picks up. Pay keeps climbing to match: plumbers' median sits near $63,800 and electricians near $63,190, with the top 10% in both trades clearing $108,000 (BLS, May 2025 data); electrician roles are projected to grow 9% through 2035 versus 7% for plumbers, with about 155,000 openings a year across electricians, plumbers and HVAC techs combined (BLS). Translation: the bidding war for techs is structural — an aging workforce draining out faster than spending swings — not a blip. If you're competing on wage alone, you're in an arms race you can't win outright.
Quick hits
You're bidding against data centers. The AI build-out needs 300,000+ electricians on its own — the same people you're trying to hire (Rinvio).
Most of the gap is retirement, not the AI boom. ABC says a majority of 2026's new-worker demand is backfilling retirees — a structural drain that doesn't ease when construction spending slows (ABC).
Six figures is the top decile. The top 10% of electricians and plumbers clear $108,000 a year — not the median hourly hand (BLS).
155,000 seats a year. That's the combined national openings for electricians, plumbers and HVAC techs through 2035 — a decade of tight labor baked in (BLS).
The Tip — Run your cost-of-turnover number
Most owners treat a raise as a cost and turnover as free. It's backwards. Losing a journeyman costs you months of lost billable hours, recruiting time, and the ramp on a replacement who bills slower for the first 90 days. Add it up for one tech — fully loaded — and you'll usually find a raise now plus a clear advancement path is cheaper than replacing them. Do that math before you decide you can't afford to keep someone. With most of the 2026 gap coming from retirements you can't out-hire, retention is the highest-ROI hiring strategy in a market this tight.
Tool watch — [Not sponsored]
Free benchmark: the BLS Occupational Employment pages give you median and top-decile wages for electricians, plumbers, and HVAC techs by state. Know where your pay sits against the local market before your best tech finds out for you.
That's the callout. See you next time.
The Callout — the business brief for the trades. We label every commercial placement: [Sponsor], [Affiliate], or [Not sponsored]. Today's Tool watch is our own honest read — no one paid for it. 231J Ramparts Road, Te Anau 9600, New Zealand · Unsubscribe anytime.
Sources: ABC — Construction Industry Must Attract 349,000 Workers in 2026 Despite Macroeconomic Headwinds (15 Jan 2026) · Construction Dive — New worker demand drops to 350,000 in 2026 · BLS — Occupational Outlook Handbook: Electricians · BLS — Occupational Outlook Handbook: Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters · BLS — Occupational Outlook Handbook: HVAC Mechanics and Installers · Rinvio — The Electrician Shortage Behind the Data Center Boom