Good morning. If you buy your own health coverage — or your techs do — this fall's renewal is the second bad one in a row, and for a different reason than last year's. Open enrollment opens November 1 in most states, so this is a decision, not a headline.
Top story — the sticker is going up, and the bonus discount is gone
Two things are pushing what you pay in 2027. They are related — the subsidy expiry is one reason the sticker is up — but they reach you through different doors.
The sticker price: ACA Marketplace insurers have proposed a median increase of about 15% for 2027, from KFF's review of the 276 insurers with publicly available filings across all 50 states and DC. Requests, not final rates: KFF calls this the second-highest requested change since 2018, though lower than the 2026 plan year, when a median proposed 18% finalized at a median 20%. In the 16 states and DC that filed detailed justifications, insurers name rising health care prices as the primary driver, plus general inflation, labor shortages, a sicker risk pool, and the end of the enhanced subsidies (KFF).
The bonus discount: the enhanced premium tax credits expired December 31, 2025. Read that word carefully. The original ACA credit — the one most Marketplace buyers have had since 2014 — still exists. What expired in 2021's enhancement was the deeper discount on top of it, and the removal of the old income cliff.
KFF projected in September 2025 that losing it would more than double what subsidized enrollees pay in premiums — a 114% jump, from an average of $888 a year to $1,904 — but that figure was for keeping the identical plan, and it already bakes in an assumed 18% rise in gross premiums and a new contribution formula. What actually happened is smaller and sadder: KFF's June 2026 read of the federal data puts the average rise in net premium payments at 58%, with deductibles up 37% and enrollment down 13%, from 22.1 million to 19.2 million. People did not pay the 114%. Many of them traded down or left.
So the 2027 request is not stacked on top of the 2026 number. It is a further rise in the sticker, for next year. What you actually pay moves separately, depending on the credit you still qualify for.
Quick hits
The 400% cliff is back, and it is an owner problem. With the enhancement gone, a household earning more than 400% of the federal poverty level loses the premium tax credit entirely — not a smaller credit, none (CBPP). CBPP's national-average case: a family of four at about $126,000 (404% FPL) goes from paying $10,710 — the 8.5%-of-income cap — to the full $19,068 benchmark premium. That is $8,358 more a year, a 78% increase. Those are 2025 price levels, so the 2027 gap is wider. A good year can now push you over that line and add north of eight thousand dollars to your annual cover.
If you estimate your income low, the clawback is no longer capped. The credit is calculated off your estimated income and reconciled at tax time. The limits that used to cap how much excess advance credit you had to repay have been eliminated — file in 2027 and you repay the full excess, however large (CBPP). For an owner whose income swings with the job list, that is the sharper edge of the two.
The clock: November 1 to January 15 — but December 15 if you want cover on January 1. In most states, 2027 open enrollment runs Nov 1, 2026 – Jan 15, 2027, with Dec 15 the cutoff for a January 1 start (healthinsurance.org, Aug 2026). Your state may differ: Idaho runs Oct 15 – Dec 15, Connecticut and Massachusetts open Oct 23, and California, DC, New Jersey and New York run to Jan 31. Miss your window and you need a qualifying life event to get in.
The Tip — re-shop the plan; don't let it auto-renew
Block half an hour in the first week your state's window is open. Go to HealthCare.gov or your state exchange, enter your realistic 2027 income — not last year's — and price the actual plans rather than rolling over. Two reasons. With the enhancement gone your subsidy math has changed, so last year's cheapest plan may not be this year's. And because the repayment caps are gone, the income you put in matters more than it used to. If you cover W-2 techs, it is worth asking your broker or CPA how the individual market now compares with what you run today. We are not telling you which plan to buy. We are telling you not to sleep through the window where you can change it.
Tool watch — [Not sponsored]
HealthCare.gov's "See plans & prices" preview. It lets you enter household size and expected income and see estimated 2027 prices after any credit you would qualify for, before you commit to anything. Treat the numbers as estimates: 2027 rates are still proposed, and your credit depends on your own income and household. If your state runs its own exchange, check whether it offers the same preview.
That's the callout. See you next time.
The Callout — the business brief for the trades. We label every Tool watch: [Sponsor], [Affiliate], or [Not sponsored] — even the free ones. Today's is our own honest read; no one paid for it. 231J Ramparts Road, Te Anau 9600, New Zealand · Unsubscribe anytime. Nothing in The Callout is tax, legal, or insurance advice, and The Callout is not a licensed insurance producer and is not affiliated with HealthCare.gov, CMS, or any insurer. Figures are national averages; your subsidy and your best plan depend on your own income and household. Get a quote at your numbers and talk to a licensed broker or your CPA.
Sources
KFF — "How Much and Why ACA Marketplace Premiums Are Going Up in 2027" (median proposed increase 15%; the 276 insurers with publicly available filings across all 50 states + DC; second-highest requested rate change since 2018; prior plan year median proposed 18% → median finalized 20%; drivers, based on detailed filings from 16 states and DC, are rising health care prices as the primary driver, plus general economic inflation, labor shortages, the expiration of the enhanced premium tax credits and a related rise in risk-pool morbidity). Published Aug 3, 2026; page last modified Sept 11, 2026. https://www.kff.org/affordable-care-act/how-much-and-why-aca-marketplace-premiums-are-going-up-in-2027/
KFF — "ACA Marketplace Premium Payments Would More than Double on Average Next Year if Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Expire" (projection: 114%, from an average of $888 in 2025 to $1,904 in 2026, for subsidized enrollees keeping the same plan; the scenario assumes gross premiums rise 18% and incorporates the changed tax-credit calculation). Sept 30, 2025. https://www.kff.org/affordable-care-act/aca-marketplace-premium-payments-would-more-than-double-on-average-next-year-if-enhanced-premium-tax-credits-expire/
KFF Quick Take — ACA Marketplace enrollment and 2026 outcomes (measured: net premium payments up 58%, deductibles up 37%, enrollment down from 22.1 million to 19.2 million; 114% applied only to enrollees keeping the same plan). June 29, 2026. https://www.kff.org/
Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker — 2027 Marketplace premium brief (average increase in premium payments after subsidies in 2026: 58%; insurers adjusting for the expiration project roughly 4 percentage points of the 2027 increase attributable to it). Updated Aug 3, 2026. https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/how-much-and-why-aca-marketplace-premiums-are-going-up-in-2027/
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) — "Five Key Changes to ACA Marketplaces Amid Uncertainty Over Premium Tax Credit Enhancements" (households above 400% FPL lose the credit entirely; about 90% of enrollees are below that level; Appendix Table 1, family of four at $126,000 / 404% FPL: $10,710 → $19,068, +$8,358, 78%, at 2025 price levels using 2024 poverty guidelines; repayment limits on excess advance credits eliminated, full repayment required on 2026 credits filed in 2027). Sept 22, 2025. https://www.cbpp.org/research/health/five-key-changes-to-aca-marketplaces-amid-uncertainty-over-premium-tax-credit
ASTHO — "ACA Enhanced Premium Tax Credits: Legislative Developments in 2025 and 2026" (enhanced PTCs expired Dec 31, 2025; the enhancement removed the 400% FPL cap and capped contributions at 8.5% of income; H.R. 1834 passed the House 230–196 on Jan 8, 2026; Senate action pending). Jan 20, 2026. https://www.astho.org/communications/blog/2026/aca-enhanced-premium-tax-credits-legislative-developments-2025-2026/
healthinsurance.org — open-enrollment deadlines FAQ (2027 OE Nov 1, 2026 – Jan 15, 2027 in most states; Dec 15 for Jan 1 coverage; Idaho Oct 15 – Dec 15; CT and MA open Oct 23; CA, DC, NJ, NY run to Jan 31; special enrollment period required after the window; CMS shortening rule vacated June 12, 2026 by the U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland in Columbus v. Kennedy, 1:25-cv-02114-BAH; HHS appealed July 16, 2026, oral argument late Oct 2026; CMS statement of Aug 4, 2026 in 1:26-cv-02215 confirming the 2027 dates; any change from the appeal would affect the fall-2027 window). Updated Aug 10, 2026. https://www.healthinsurance.org/faqs/what-are-the-deadlines-for-the-acas-open-enrollment-period/
All sources read live 20 and 23 September 2026; subsidy status and open-enrollment dates re-checked 16 October 2026.