Good morning. The July construction spending figures landed on Tuesday, and the headline is the least useful part of them.
Top story — The total is flat. The mix is not.
Construction spending in July ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,157.6 billion, 0.5 percent below the revised June estimate of $2,167.7 billion, and 3.8 percent below July 2025 (U.S. Census Bureau, Monthly Construction Spending July 2026, release CB26-140, 1 September 2026).
Be careful with that monthly drop. The Census Bureau puts a margin of plus or minus 0.8 percent on it, which includes zero — meaning it cannot say for certain the number moved at all (Census Bureau). The year-on-year figures are the ones carrying real signal.
There, the split is stark. Residential construction ran at $871.2 billion, down 7.3 percent against July 2025, with new single-family down 6.5 percent. Nonresidential ran at $1,286.4 billion, down only 1.3 percent (Census Bureau).
And inside nonresidential, one category is running away from the rest. Office construction was $140.1 billion, up 2.9 percent on the month and 16.9 percent on the year. Private office alone was up 21.3 percent year on year (Census Bureau).
Quick hits
Power keeps climbing. Power construction was $181.5 billion, up 5.3 percent year on year, and private power was up 6.5 percent (Census Bureau).
Factory building has fallen off a cliff. Manufacturing construction was $169.8 billion, down 21.2 percent against July 2025 — the largest decline of any major category (Census Bureau).
Public money is holding. Highway and street construction was $151.5 billion, up 4.5 percent year on year, and total public construction was up 1.7 percent while private fell 5.5 percent (Census Bureau).
The Tip — Check your job mix against the table
Most owners describe their business by trade. The Census describes it by building type, and that is the more useful cut right now, because the trade is doing fine in one building type and dying in another.
Take your last twelve months of revenue and sort it into four buckets: new houses, existing-home work, commercial fit-out and refit, and public or utility work. Then put the year-on-year numbers above next to them. If more than half your revenue sits in new residential, you are attached to the one category falling at 7 percent a year while offices grow at 17.
That is not an argument to abandon housing. It is an argument to have one live commercial or public relationship you are actively feeding, so that the pipeline exists before you need it. Office refits, power work and roading all need the same trades — the difference is the procurement process, and that takes months to learn from a standing start.
Tool watch — [Not sponsored]
The Census construction spending tables are free, monthly, and take five minutes to read. The August figures are out on 1 October. Put it in your calendar and read the nonresidential table — it is the closest thing the trades have to a demand forecast, and nobody is charging you for it.
That’s the callout. See you next time.
The Callout — the business brief for the trades. We label every commercial placement: [Sponsor], [Affiliate], or [Not sponsored]. Today’s Tool watch is our own honest read — no one paid for it. 231J Ramparts Road, Te Anau 9600, New Zealand · Unsubscribe anytime.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau — “Monthly Construction Spending, July 2026,” Release Number CB26-140, 1 September 2026, including Table 1 (seasonally adjusted annual rate).