Good morning. The 2026 deal data is out, and it settles the argument: the money isn't testing the trades anymore, it's in. Whether or not you ever sell, the scoreboard tells you what your shop is worth and who you're now competing with.
Top story — The mid-2026 roll-up scoreboard
Private equity backed 47 of 92 HVAC services deals announced or completed so far in 2026 — just over half of all transactions, and a slight uptick from 46 sponsor-backed deals in the same period last year, even as total sector volume slipped 4.2% year over year (Capstone Partners, 27 July 2026). The headline deals are enormous: Blackstone's roughly $2.5 billion purchase of Champions Group, agreed in February 2026, valued it near 18.5x earnings on about $140M of EBITDA — and it follows the benchmark Goldman Sachs Alternatives set buying Sila Services for a reported $1.7 billion, near 17–20x (Pipeline On). Roughly 27 active PE platforms are now buying HVAC, plumbing, or combined home-services shops (Pipeline On). Buyers are also shifting toward commercial HVAC, where consolidation is at an early but accelerating stage (The Hardwire News).
Quick hits
The multiple ladder. In plumbing, $1–3M-revenue shops trade around 3.5–5.5x seller's earnings; $3–10M-revenue shops around 5–8x adjusted EBITDA; platform-scale operators above $10M in EBITDA command 9–13x (CT Acquisitions). Your size band sets your multiple before the first meeting.
Commercial doesn't pay a premium — until it scales. Commercial-only mechanical contractors with $3–10M in revenue trade around 4.5–6.5x, a full turn below comparable residential-service shops; at platform scale they close the gap (CT Acquisitions).
They want recurring revenue. Maintenance-agreement and membership revenue is now the single largest multiplier for smaller shops — buyers routinely add 1–2 turns of EBITDA when members top 25% of active customers (CT Acquisitions).
The Tip — Build the revenue they pay up for
The single biggest lever on your multiple isn't size — it's predictability. PE pays a premium for recurring, contracted revenue because it's bankable. If you don't have a service-agreement or membership program, that's your highest-return project this year: every maintenance plan you sell converts one-off calls into a recurring stream that lifts both your cash flow now and your sale price later. Track your recurring revenue as a percentage of total, and grow it deliberately.
Tool watch — [Not sponsored]
The CT Acquisitions roll-up trackers publish active buyers and current multiples by trade, updated through 2026. Even if you're not selling, it's the clearest free read on what a shop like yours is worth today.
That's the callout. See you next time.
The Callout — the business brief for the trades. We label every commercial placement: [Sponsor], [Affiliate], or [Not sponsored]. Today's Tool watch is our own honest read — no one paid for it. 231J Ramparts Road, Te Anau 9600, New Zealand · Unsubscribe anytime.