Good morning. A planning index went sideways last week and almost nobody covered it, because a flat number is not a headline. But there is a figure buried in the release that tells most of you more about 2027 than anything published this month.
Top story — The index was flat. The market underneath it was not.
The Dodge Momentum Index ticked down 0.4% in August to 282.0 (2000=100), from a downwardly revised July reading of 283.0 (Dodge Construction Network, 8 Sep 2026). Over the month, commercial planning declined 3.0% and institutional planning grew 4.9%. Year over year the index was up 4.2%, with commercial up 2.3% and institutional up 7.8%.
Read only that, and August was an unremarkable month.
Then Dodge adds one sentence: "When removing data centers, the commercial segment would be down 18.9% from year-ago levels," which the release attributes to the surge in activity seen in late 2025.
That is the number. Commercial planning is up 2.3% on the year with data centers in it and down 18.9% without them. One project type is carrying an entire segment, and if you are not on those jobs, the index that looks healthy is describing somebody else's business. Dodge's own director of economic research, Sarah Martin, attributed the flatter trend to weaker data center planning, adding that "most other sectors saw an acceleration in planning momentum."
Why a planning index is worth your attention: the DMI tracks projects entering planning, and Dodge states it leads nonresidential construction spending "by a full year to 18 months." What was decided in August is what you will be bidding in late 2027. It is the earliest honest read on your own pipeline that exists, and it is free.
Quick hits
The institutional side is where the momentum went. Education, recreational and public buildings all showed a stronger planning pipeline in August; office buildings, parking garages and hotels picked up on the commercial side. Healthcare pulled back slightly after four straight months of growth. If your bid mix is weighted to warehouses, retail and speculative commercial, the sectors that accelerated in August are schools, public buildings and rec centers — work with longer procurement cycles, more paperwork, and bonding and prequalification requirements you may not currently hold.
Thirty-one big projects entered planning, and the top of the list is the problem in miniature. A total of 31 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning in August. The largest commercial entries were two EdgeConneX data centers in Bastrop, Texas at $462 million each, a $378 million Bitdeer data center in Shalersville Township, Ohio, and a $358 million data center in Secaucus, New Jersey. The biggest institutional entries were three Virginia projects at $350 million apiece. Four of the largest commercial projects in the country entering planning in a month were data centers.
This is a forecast, not a verdict. The DMI is a leading indicator built on projects entering planning, and projects entering planning do not all get built. The July figure was revised down in this same release, which is a useful reminder of how much these readings move. Treat the 18.9% as a direction and a warning, not a booked number.
The Tip — Run the ex-data-center test on your own backlog
Do the same arithmetic Dodge just did, on your own book. Pull your signed backlog and your live bid list, tag every job that exists because of a data center — directly or one tier removed, including the utility work, the switchgear, the site utilities and the mechanical rooms feeding one — and total the rest. That second number is your real pipeline. If it is shrinking while your headline backlog looks stable, you have the same problem the index does, and you have twelve to eighteen months of warning rather than a surprise.
Two moves off the back of that. First, if the ex-data-center number is thin, start the prequalification work for institutional bidding now, not when you need the revenue: public-sector and education work typically requires bonding capacity, a prequal application and sometimes a track record you have to build before you can bid, and that process takes months you will not have later. Second, if you are heavily exposed to hyperscale, that is not a reason to panic — planning slowed from a late-2025 surge, it did not stop — but it is a reason to make sure the exposure is deliberate rather than accidental, and to know what your break-even looks like if one client's program pauses.
Tool watch — [Not sponsored]
The Dodge Momentum Index is published free as a monthly press release on construction.com, usually in the first ten days of the month, and takes ninety seconds to read. Put it on your calendar alongside the Census construction spending release and the ABC backlog indicator. A contractor who reads three free monthly numbers has a better view of 2027 than one who reads none and relies on how busy the phone feels — and "how busy the phone feels" is a lagging indicator of a market that turned a year ago.
That's the callout. See you next time.
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