Good morning. Once a month the Census Bureau counts every dollar being spent on construction in the country, and the June tally just landed. It’s the cleanest read you’ll get on how big the pie actually is — and this month it says the pie got a little smaller, in a way that lines up with what the equipment makers already told you.
Top story — Construction spending is running 3.2% below last year, and homebuilding is the drag
Total U.S. construction spending in June came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,166.5 billion — down 0.1% from May, and 3.2% below June 2025 (U.S. Census Bureau, Monthly Construction Spending, June 2026, released 3 Aug 2026). Step back to the whole first half and the picture’s the same: spending over January–June was $1,046.9 billion, 3.5% below the same stretch of 2025 (same release). The soft spot is where you’d guess — private residential spending slipped 0.3% for the month as higher mortgage rates kept weighing on new homebuilding, while private nonresidential edged up 0.1% (Census C30; Reuters via GV Wire). Why it matters to your shop: this is the same story Lennox and Trane told on their own earnings calls — residential and new construction are the tired part of the market, commercial and replacement are holding. When the national numbers, the OEMs, and your own booking calendar all point the same way, that’s not noise. It’s the trend you plan the fall around.
Quick hits
Public work is holding while private cools. Public construction spending was $544.1 billion, basically flat from May, with office up 2.8% for the month even as manufacturing slipped 1.2% (Census C30, June 2026). Government-funded jobs — schools, water, roads, public buildings — aren’t swinging with the mortgage cycle. If you’re not on any public bid lists, that’s a lane you’re leaving to competitors.
Private building is where the softness sits. Total private construction ran at $1,622.5 billion, down 0.1% on the month, with the residential half ($877.1 billion) doing the pulling-down and the nonresidential half ($745.3 billion) inching up (Census C30; Lesprom). The split matters more than the total — a flat headline can hide a real shift underneath.
This is a monthly, free, primary number — use it. The Census release drops on the first business day of each month and is public and free. It’s the least-hyped, most-reliable demand gauge you have; the next one (July data) is due around 1 September (Census C30 schedule). Most owners never look at it. You now do.
The Tip — Pressure-test this fall’s plan against the direction, not last year’s volume
Before you commit to fall hiring, a new truck, or an inventory order, do a five-minute check: is your booked backlog for the next 90 days ahead of, level with, or behind where it was this time last year? The national number says total demand is down ~3% and residential/new-construction is carrying the weakness — so if your book leans that way and your backlog is thinner, don’t fund the plan off last year’s run-rate. Redirect the effort to the parts that are holding: quote more replacement and service, get your license and paperwork onto a couple of public bid lists (public spending isn’t cooling), and chase light-commercial and nonresidential work. You can’t change the market, but you can move your book toward the half of it that’s still standing.
Tool watch — [Not sponsored]
The single best free tool here is the report itself: the Census Construction Spending release (census.gov/construction/c30) is published monthly at no cost, and the one-page summary takes two minutes to read. Bookmark it and glance at the residential-vs-nonresidential and private-vs-public lines each month — it tells you which way the wind’s blowing before it shows up in your own phone ringing. For public work, SAM.gov lists federal opportunities free, and most states and counties run their own free bid portals. No one paid for this mention.
That’s the callout. See you next time.
The Callout — the business brief for the trades. We label every commercial placement: [Sponsor], [Affiliate], or [Not sponsored]. Today’s Tool watch is our own honest read — no one paid for it.
231J Ramparts Road, Te Anau 9600, New Zealand · Unsubscribe anytime.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau — Monthly Construction Spending, June 2026: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/pr202506.pdf · Census C30 current release: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/current/index.html · Reuters via GV Wire: https://gvwire.com/2026/08/03/us-construction-spending-unexpectedly-falls-in-june/ · Rock Products: https://rockproducts.com/2026/08/03/construction-spending-slips-in-june/ · Lesprom: https://www.lesprom.com/en/news/Private_construction_spending_edges_down_in_June_as_public_spending_holds_steady_124048/