Good morning. Three of the biggest names in HVAC have now reported their second-quarter results within about two weeks of each other, and the picture is finally clear. Carrier’s quarter was the margin story. Lennox’s was the residential-vs-commercial split. Trane’s is the demand story — and it comes with a number every owner who buys equipment should read: a record backlog.
Top story — Trane’s revenue rose nearly 11%, it raised its outlook, and its backlog hit a record $12.1 billion
Trane Technologies (NYSE: TT) reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of about $6.35 billion, up 10.6%, with adjusted continuing earnings per share of $4.31, up 11% from $3.88 a year ago (GAAP diluted continuing EPS was $4.20), on July 30. Organic revenue grew 9%. The number that matters most for a contractor isn’t the profit line — it’s the pipeline behind it: bookings jumped 39% to $7.82 billion and backlog hit a record $12.1 billion. A record backlog at a major OEM is good news for the industry and a heads-up for your jobs: when the factory’s order book is that full, lead times stretch. Trane was confident enough to raise its full-year 2026 guidance to adjusted EPS of $15.20–$15.30, up from its prior view. Read the three reports together and the map is done: residential new-construction is the soft lane, commercial is the hot one, and equipment is getting harder to get fast.
Quick hits
Commercial HVAC is where the demand is — and data centers are driving it. Trane’s Americas Commercial HVAC business posted bookings growth of 50% with organic revenue up in the low teens, led by data-center construction demand. That’s the same signal Lennox sent in its own Q2 (commercial up 24%) and Carrier before it (commercial HVAC orders up sharply). Three OEMs, one message: the commercial and light-commercial lanes are carrying 2026.
A record backlog means longer waits — plan your ordering around it. Backlog of $12.1 billion and bookings up 39% is the demand you want, but it’s also lead time you’ll feel. When the biggest names are sitting on record order books, the rooftop unit or chiller you quote today can take longer to land than it did last year. Build that into your job timelines and your customer promises now, not after a slip.
Not every market is hot — the strength is North American commercial. Trane’s raised outlook rests on Americas commercial and data-center demand, not a broad global boom; management flagged softer conditions in parts of its international business. For a US shop that’s the good half of the story — but it’s a reminder that “HVAC is booming” is really “US commercial HVAC is booming,” and your local mix is what actually pays you.
The Tip — Lock your equipment lead times in writing before you quote the job
A record OEM backlog is a scheduling risk hiding inside good news. First, call your distributor and get the current lead time — in days — on the three or four units you install most, and write those numbers down; if they’ve moved out since spring, your job calendar is already wrong. Second, stop quoting install dates off last year’s timeline: put the equipment lead time into the quote itself (“install within X weeks of equipment arrival, currently ~Y weeks out”), so a factory delay is the customer’s expectation instead of your broken promise. On bigger commercial jobs, order long-lead gear the day the deposit clears, not the week before the crew shows up. The shops that win the commercial work everyone’s chasing are the ones whose lead times are managed, not guessed.
Tool watch — [Not sponsored]
You don’t need new software to manage this — you need one shared field. In whatever you already run — Jobber, Housecall Pro, ServiceTitan, or a spreadsheet — add an “equipment ETA” date to every open install and make it the date your schedule is built around, not the date the customer called. The point is that anyone booking work can see, in one glance, which jobs are waiting on a unit and how long it’s really been. No one paid for this mention.
That’s the callout. See you next time.
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Sources: Trane Technologies — Q2 2026 results; raises full-year revenue and EPS guidance (30 Jul 2026)